{"@context":"http://iiif.io/api/presentation/3/context.json","id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/iiif/sn00z7243w/manifest","type":"Manifest","label":{"en":["Dr. James Tobin on the U.S. Economy Through 1980"]},"logo":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/organizations/logo_images/000/000/038/original/university-libraries-logo-2x.png?1711560609","metadata":[{"label":{"en":["Publisher"]},"value":{"en":["University of Arizona Libraries"]}},{"label":{"en":["Rights Statement"]},"value":{"en":["Copyright held by University of Arizona Libraries"]}},{"label":{"en":["Source"]},"value":{"en":["Accent: On University of Arizona, box 2, reel 31"]}},{"label":{"en":["Agent"]},"value":{"en":["Beach, Mort (interviewer)","Tobin, James, 1918-2002 (interviewee)"]}},{"label":{"en":["Date"]},"value":{"en":["4/24/1978"]}},{"label":{"en":["Coverage"]},"value":{"en":["Arizona--Tucson (spatial)"]}},{"label":{"en":["Language"]},"value":{"en":["English"]}},{"label":{"en":["Description"]},"value":{"en":["Program topics - Interview with Dr. James Tobin, noted economist and author, on the U.S. economy through 1980."]}},{"label":{"en":["Format"]},"value":{"en":["1/4 inch audio tape"]}},{"label":{"en":["Identifier"]},"value":{"en":["MS641.076 (uid)"]}},{"label":{"en":["Relation"]},"value":{"en":["Accent: On University of Arizona (part of)"]}},{"label":{"en":["Subject"]},"value":{"en":["University of Arizona"]}},{"label":{"en":["Type"]},"value":{"en":["Interviews"]}}],"summary":{"en":["Program topics - Interview with Dr. James Tobin, noted economist and author, on the U.S. economy through 1980."]},"requiredStatement":{"label":{"en":["Attribution"]},"value":{"en":["Copyright held by University of Arizona Libraries"]}},"provider":[{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/aboutus","type":"Agent","label":{"en":["University of Arizona Libraries"]},"homepage":[{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/","type":"Text","label":{"en":["University of Arizona Libraries"]},"format":"text/html"}],"logo":[{"id":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/organizations/logo_images/000/000/038/original/university-libraries-logo-2x.png?1711560609","type":"Image"}]}],"thumbnail":[{"id":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/public/images/audio-default.png","type":"Image","format":"image/png"}],"items":[{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883","type":"Canvas","label":{"en":["Media File 1 of 1 - azu_ms641-076_side1_a.mp3"]},"duration":506.09953,"width":640,"height":360,"thumbnail":[{"id":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/public/images/audio-default.png","type":"Image","format":"image/png"}],"items":[{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/content/1","type":"AnnotationPage","items":[{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/content/1/annotation/1","type":"Annotation","motivation":"painting","body":{"id":"https://aviary-p-arizona.s3.wasabisys.com/collection_resource_files/resource_files/000/159/883/original/azu_ms641-076_side1_a.mp3?1652814655","type":"Audio","format":"audio/mp3","duration":506.09953,"width":640,"height":360},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883","metadata":[]}]}],"annotations":[{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["641-076 [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/1","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: This is accent on the University of Arizona. I'm Mark beech, a noted economist, author and economic adviser to President Kennedy in the 1960s. Dr. James Tobin was at the University of Arizona recently to deliver a lecture on the American economy through 1980. Hits prospects and policies. Dr. Tobin, who is Sterling professor of economics at Yale, was one of three economists on President Kennedy's console economic advisors, and has also served as a consultant to the Federal Reserve System, the US Treasury, the Congressional Budget Office and the Ford Foundation. his visit to the U of A campus was co sponsored by the Yale club of Tucson and the U of A's Department of Economics. Dr. Tobin, what are prospects in general for the economy from now through the 1980s? Or up till 1980?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=6.0,55.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/2","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: Well, it's hard to say I think things are going pretty well. Right now, the recovery that we're undergoing is in its third year now finishing its third year. And the prospects for this year I think, are quite favorable after the first quarter, which held down by the winter and the coal strike, the rest of the year, should be moderately good. In my opinion, the prospects for 1979 and 1980 are less sure depends on weather, monetary policies and fiscal policies are sufficiently supportive of the recovery to keep it going. That in turn depends on how the country reacts to President Carter's anti inflation message, how panicky, the Federal Reserve becomes about the dangers of inflation or or the United States dollar.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=56.0,113.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/3","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: You think inflation is going to be a part of our economic system for some time to come?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=114.0,117.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/4","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: I think that's a pretty good bet. Been been part of it for quite a long time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=118.0,122.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/5","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: What about the rate of inflation though, Dr.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=123.0,123.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/6","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: Tobin, we're stuck right now in a pattern of around 6%, inflation, maybe a little more, sometimes a little less, sometimes, depending on what happens in farm prices and food prices, raw materials prices, but the basic pattern in the country is governed by a combination of wage increases and price increases in the industrial, non agricultural sector, the economy, and that's a pretty strong stubborn pattern of about 8% on wages and 6% on prices, hard to break that keeps going have its own momentum. And the main problem before the country is how to deal with that stubborn, persistent building inflation in the same time, reduce unemployment and excess capacity and get the economy growing at its normal rates of growth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=124.0,179.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/7","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: What about the US dollar? Do you see it staging or recovery?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=180.0,183.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/8","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: Well, I think it's a fair bet that the US dollar will, will recover. But that doesn't mean that we won't have troubles in the foreign exchange markets. Before comes back up to something more like its permanent value. Really, the foreign exchange problems are could be described more accurately as the problem of the other currencies mark and the yen. In particular, rather than the problem with the dollar, because we're pretty much in step with the rest of the world. And it's the strong or values of the mark in the end as surplus countries, Germany and Japan. That is our line. And","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=184.0,229.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/9","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: that's what makes the dollars position a little bit shaky on foreign exchanges right now.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=230.0,234.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/10","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: Well, it makes the dollar go down relative to those currencies, but relative to other currencies has all hasn't gone down. And relative to the vast average of the our trading partners, the dollar has declined only 5%. While it's and that is entirely due to its decline against the market in the end. The trouble is the Germans and Japan, Germany and Japan are not expanding very rapidly, their economies so their demands for foreign goods, either American goods or other goods are weak. at same time, the United States has been the strength of the world economy, our economy has been expanding. Our demands for imports from other countries has been increasing. And so we've been running rather large trade deficits. currency is reflected that I don't think that that should be regarded as fault or failure of the American dollar or of the American economy. is more accurate to say it's a folder for the German and Japanese economists.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=235.0,304.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/11","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: On a related subject, what do you think about the proposed tax cut? Do you feel that it's a good idea? What about the amount that the President has proposed?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=305.0,313.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/12","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: I think that some stimulus to the economy, in the latter part is here is is a good idea. And the tax cut is a way to do that, both for consumer spending and to give some stimulus to business investment, business investment has been the weak spot in the recovery since the bottom of the recession in the beginning of 1975. And part of the Carter tax package is to strengthen the incentives for business investment, reduce the corporate profits tax rate, and that they're really probably necessary to keep the recovery going at the end of this year and into 1979. Especially because it's unlikely that we get much stimulus from the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, is they're already in the process of raising interest rates rather than holding them steady or lowering them. So what stimulus we're going to get is probably has to come from the budget. And I think Carter proposal is a moderate one. Do the economy good?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=314.0,384.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/13","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: Do you hold out any hope at all for any kind of welfare or tax reform in the near future?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=385.0,390.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/14","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: It doesn't look like welfare reform is going to make it in this session of Congress. Maybe still has a chance later in Carter's presidential term and next session, but the congressional agenda is just too crowded with other major pieces of legislation. To and that's too controversial in all, many details to expect you to get through this year. Eventually, I think we will get some rationalization the welfare system, or pretty much along the lines, somewhat modified of Carter proposals, but probably not this year. Tax Reform, that looks pretty dead. To me, the tax bill is going to be very, very much stripped down, if any has passed at all is going to mainly be tax reduction and not tax reform, as tax reform is just something where you can't get a big constituency to support it with sufficient strength to overcome the interests that oppose every every little piece of tax reform who feel very intensely about each such proposal. So we never, we never do very well at getting tax reform even though in principle, everybody thinks it's a great idea.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=391.0,479.999"},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/15","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"UNKNOWN SPEAKER: I've been talking with Dr. James Tobin, I noted economist, author and economic adviser to President Kennedy in the 1960s. This has been accent on the University of Arizona, I'm Mark beech.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883#t=480.0,482.0"}]},{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["English [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://arizona.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1953/collection_resources/73840/file/159883/transcript/37745/annotation/16","type":"Annotation","motivation":"subtitling","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/037/745/original/azu_ms641-076_side1_a.vtt?1652814691","format":"text/vtt","language":"en"},"target":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/037/745/original/azu_ms641-076_side1_a.vtt?1652814691"}]}]}]}